Less Information - better Decisions

Measuring the impact of data and information is one of the most important and interesting topics. A recent blog post by Andrej Verity on cue-based decision making has inspired a discussion on how to measure and evaluate the impact of information products. Besides our most recent publication on understanding risk accelerators [pdf preprint; published in LNCS] (presented in Bartel's Keynote at the CAiSE Conference), this post is dedicated to relevance information for decision making. Knowing what information is required, when, by whom, and in what format is key to creating and delivering tailored information products. 

In the past, it was considered as the main challenge to overcome the lack, uncertainty or vagueness of information. The core assumption was that more information and a complete overview of the situation, decision-makers are able to make better decisions. 

An example is this map, the first that was published on humanitarianresponse.info after the Typhoon made landfall. The map shows Haiyan's path, and population in the regions. According to the traditional paradigm, this map should be enriched with more and more accurate information over time, to enable a more effective and efficient response operation. Today (June 2014), almost 3,000 updates and more than 700 maps and infographics on Haiyan are available - on reliefweb alone.

And there is more: locally word of mouth, communcations by municipalities or charities; online the digital humanitarians scrambling, curating and assessing information remotely. Information evolves more dynamic than ever before - and our understanding cannot keep pace with the explosion of updates, reports, maps and graphics. 

From data to decision driven information  

Information made for... ?

As a new paradigm, we propose staringt from a decision-centric perspective. Rather than generating more and more information products, only because data is available, we should focus on relevant and actionable information. Decisions differ in terms of information required, time scales, geographical scope and involved actors. Yet, the purpose, for which infographics and maps actually designed, remains often hidden and implicit. 

The question where to set up a hospital has very different characteristics from funding decisions. Both decisions are important, but have very different requirements in terms of information granularity, timeliness, and updates. Which donor would like see a daily update of a few hundred kilobyte operational map? Or what field office needs an infographic? Information providers should ask: which decisions do we want to support? Making the purpose of an information product explicit and transparent is crucial to better operational impact and evaluation. 

our vision: Decision-tailored information

Focusing on operations, it is important to understand which information decision-makers use, and even search for. A taxonomy of decision-makers is provided in the Decision-Makers' Needs Report. We propose going even beyond this work - focusing on key decisions, embedded in a personal and organizational network.

In the field, limited bandwidth and time pressure serve as natural filters. Queries from the field are therefore indicators for information that is actually vital, but not provided - at least not in a form that is easy to find or retrieve. 

In many interviews, we heard that queries most often are made directly: instead of searching online, trying to understand maps, graphics, sitreps, decision-makers reach out directly. Via sat phone or radio, they would ask a person they trusted for the information they needed. Communication is hence highly efficient - no searching for the right keywords, platforms, or granulariy; no need for interpreting or processing information; no redundancies or time lags. 

Yet, efficiency comes at a cost: despite its (potential) relevance this information is not available and lost for others.

UN-OCHA in Manila - between HQs and operational decision-making

How can information products be as efficient and reliable as a phone call? 
The answer in this new paradigm: by providing tailored information products, created and designed in near-real time for a purposeful decision in a given context. For us, the greatest potential for innovation and improvements lies in understanding decisions such that we can generate less information to make better decisions.